Will India and China Escape the Thucydides’ Trap?
About 10 days after the U.S. House of Representatives’ Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, India finally broke its studied silence over both the trip and China’s consequent unprecedented military exercises and live-fire air and sea drills that encircled Taiwan, heralding the onset of the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis. On August 12, while answering questions on these recent developments in the Taiwan Strait as part of a weekly media briefing at the Ministry of External Affairs, India’s Official Spokesperson Arindam Bagchi, without naming any parties, urged exercising restraint and avoiding unilateral actions to change the status quo, so as to de-escalate tensions and maintain peace and stability in the region.
Even as no loud official proclamation was expected, the supposedly non-descript nature of India’s statement was in keeping with the prevalent regional provocation-averse ethos vis-à-vis China. Even the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) foreign ministers’ statement on the cross-strait development, while warning about the “unpredictable consequences” of “open conflicts” and “miscalculations” between major powers, reiterated each member’s support for its respective “One China” policy. However, India’s short, yet stern, statement was marked by its refusal to abide by Beijing’s call to reiterate the “One China” policy, simply because India’s “relevant” policies are “well-known and consistent.”
Quad in the Indo-Pacific: Role of Informality in Countering China
The Quad, a highly informal intergovernmental organization in the Indo-Pacific, is a high-profile security grouping composed of Australia, India, Japan, and the US. For some observers, the Quad’s informality and […]
Seoul in India’s (new) middle order convergence
As both India and South Korea build their ties on the basis of democratic partnership and ASEAN centrality, the need for Seoul to emerge as a strong partner in India’s […]
The Tawang Effect: Forecasting China-India Relations in 2023
Foreseeing a trend in China-India ties is a predictable affair at present: bilateral antagonism is taking a lead over any pretense of engagement and stability. The passing years increasingly suggest […]
Seoul’s Geopolitical Code on Quad: Imperative or Elective?
Abstract: Under the new government helmed by President Yoon Suk-yeol, South Korea (ROK) has displayed a clear tilt toward and a more open embrace of the Indo- Pacific concept. Interestingly, […]
The Russia-India-China Trilateral After Ukraine: Will Beijing Take the Lead?
Introduction: At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) foreign ministers’ meeting in late July, which included China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, People’s Republic of China (PRC) State […]
Three Decades of India’s Eastward Engagement: China’s Perceptions and Responses
Abstract: This issue brief looks into China’s perceptions and responses to India’s Act East Policy. It argues that China sees India’s Act East Policy in three phases – the first […]