Examining the Roles of the UN, Europe, and the US if China Invades Taiwan
In her inaugural address in 2020, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) reiterated her support for “peace, parity, democracy, and dialogue,” while strongly rejecting China’s “One Country, Two Systems” (一國兩制) policy as a tool to “downgrade” Taiwan and “undermine the cross-Strait status quo.” China’s recent military aggressiveness toward Taiwan suggests that Beijing has abandoned any adherence to the “status quo.” In 2021, Taiwan reported about 1,000 People’s Liberation Army (PLA) incursions into its air defense identification zone (ADIZ), nearly thrice the number (380) seen in 2020. According to Chinese state media, the PLA has increased its “warplane activity” and “routine” military drills to enhance “combat readiness,” as well as to deter Taiwanese “secessionists” and US-led “foreign interference.”
Concurrently, since 2019, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) has been reiterating that China “must and will be reunified,” and has reserved “the option of taking all necessary measures,” including the use of force. Like Russian President Vladimir Putin, Xi has invoked history to justify “reunification,” “drawn from the evolution of cross-Straits relations over the past seven decades.” During the Ukraine crisis, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has also repeatedly emphasized Taiwan’s status as an “inalienable part of China.” Understandably, Taiwan—which has always been concerned about China attacking the island when the world is distracted—has been immeasurably impacted by the war unfolding in Ukraine, especially in light of the China-Russia “no limits” friendship commitment and Russia’s total opposition to Taiwan’s independence in any form.
Seoul’s Changing Indo-Pacific Manifesto and India: Policy Prescriptions for India-ROK Ties
Abstract: China’s stupendous rise and the subsequent rivalry with the US for global hegemony have forced countries to choose sides; caught between a rock and a hard place, middle powers […]
Tokyo’s Power Projection: The NATO Calculus
Introduction: If 2020 was an inflection point with the COVID-19 pandemic forcing the world to readjust its economic overdependence on China, then the year 2022 is colored by the Russian […]
Missing a Common Synergy: The India-Japan Divide on Ukraine
Introduction: In April 2022, the successful bilateral of New Delhi and Tokyo witnessed the emergence of a disagreement between the partners. Japan sought permission to land a C-2 transport plane […]
Shifting China-NATO Relations: From Selective Cooperation to Strategic Rivalry?
Introduction: On March 15, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg called on China to withdraw its support for Russia and to condemn its “brutal” invasion of Ukraine […]
Yoon’s Plan to Ditch Strategic Ambiguity Will Test US-ROK Alliance, DPRK Policy
Introduction: While Yoon has questioned the Moon administration’s policy of strategic ambiguity with regard to the U.S.-China rivalry, the new South Korean President will likely find it difficult to abandon […]
In Search of an EU-India-Japan Trilateral
Introduction: Even before the war in Ukraine, the European Union had been gearing toward an “increasingly competitive strategic environment” by developing its geo-political autonomy to meet Europe’s security responsibility and reduce strategic […]